BIG MOVEMENT IN RE MARKETPLACE. Where are we going in Q3 2023?
Highlights for AUSTIN MSA:
-Average list price holding steady - PLATEAU
-Months of inventory up 180% from 2022 (Like 2012, and 2013 levels) which results in giving up value and price dilution forecasted
-Pending Price Declining $632K = $175K delta (Avg LP and Pending)- Significant waterfall
-Price reductions, downward stability
-SOLDs - $806K - declining.
-Luxury homes (>$1.1M) giving up values more than the Lower-priced segment (holding steady)
-Unit Volumes SLOW and LOWER.
-Months of Inventory 3.5 mo. ---STABLE - Normal trend returned for Austin
- Resales CP to LP 97% and diluting (started trending down starting in April)
-Sales Volume is down this year.
-We gave up gains and money and now have flattened.
-We've hit bottom and are now bouncing though values are diluting
-Today's Market requires paying a premium compared to the historical. Tomorrow's housing market looks to track with Austin's appreciation.
-2023 is on par WITH SOLD VALUES, PENDING VALUES, and AVG LIST PRICE like 2021.
-Builders will stop giving up incentives and subsidies
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-New Builds 97% CP to LP and warming
-Builders have delivered inventory and given incentives. JULY new builds are the highest Pending (next to August and Thanksgiving). Spike was experienced in SOLD NEW CONSTRUCTION. Entering a period of diluting prices unless the closed price to the list price tightens.
UNITS SOLD
-2022 was the peak of the market
-2021 was within 7 units of the peak
-2023 values had the most significant rise in early May-June. Close of the year at or below 2021 average levels.
BUYERS ARE FEWER DUE TO SEASONAL TRENDS, AND INTEREST RATES ARE CHALLENGING! Average in supply, demand is flat and values are steady but may dilute. If you are in the game of buying you can achieve closing costs and negotiate down from list prices with success. If you are selling right now you stand to have a price reduction and will likely give up closing costs to buy down a rate for the buyer.
Building permits were positive month-over-month. down 15% ytd. We hit bottom in January 2023. Texas as a whole increased in number of total permits.
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TEXAS:
Houston has 3 months of positive; up 1.8% (last year down 1.47%) Flat on new builds.
Dallas is positive also (up 1% (last year) turning negative by end-of-year.
San Antonio has a positive 9% but negative year-over-year.
March year over a year is down 32% compared to last year. Citing undelivered inventory and supply chain delays. Forecasted to turn positive in the next few months. Buyer demand remains. New construction has filled the gap for disproportionally higher sales than resales.
Austin Sales: are down 12% from last year, 1.5% off the median value, and down 2.5% from Last year's average values. Month of inventory same as pandemic numbers during artificially low interest rates combined with prior stimulus release of money made for a stimulated market.
Dallas Sales: Down 6% 2 years in a row. Down 1.0%. Above 2023. Below where 2022 median values higher than last year. Median numbers are below last. Biased toward higher-end homes in the Dallas market. Dallas doing well. Months of inventory 2.2 months (below pandemic levels)
Houston Sales: 1 month behind in reporting data. Houston sales are down 18-19% from last year. 2022 was higher than 2021 and 2019. YTD sales are larger than in 2021. Avg sales 100,000. Flat values. Median values stable. Down 3% (above 2021 levels) month of inventory - stable - less inventory than great financial reset and pandemic. Result
San Antonio Sales: down 11%. Finish around 2018 levels. Avg values flat. Median values down 2%. Nominal for values. Months of inventory - 2018-2019 levels
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Austin sales were down 12% last year down 11%. Sales numbers are in line with the 2013 unit volume. Most expensive market in the state of Texas. Avg values are down 10% in line with the 2021 forecast with forecast on 2021 line. Giving back all of 2022 gains. withing 2% Median values down 10% above 2021 values so lower-end priced homes maintain values. Absence of luxury transactions. All homes giving up value in the Austin market. The top of the market is not selling, similar to the great recession of 2008. Months of inventory are 180% up. Same as 2012-1013 or 2007. Out of the norm for Austin. Forecast of price dilution. A more stable market would be at 2 months of inventory.
Where are we going? Where are we in Texas?
Historically, 1999 -2001 was down then 2007 was down. Post stimulus money in 2011 to keep the market moving. Most markets are above peak values post-pandemic. However, it's taking more time to rebound in Austin and Texas overall. Houston has 3rd largest rebound seasonally adjusted negative only 1.4% for the year. Dallas has pricing stability. San Antonio is positive barely positive at .2%. for the year.
Vales softened when seasonally adjusted 12 mo average since the stimulus in 2011. The severity of value dilution and the duration are dramatic. Severity starts to tighten. Q1 was positive. Continuing to give up value through Q4 in 2023. Months of inventory at 3 mos. shows dilution is going to kick up end of the year. Median values above balanced levels but still giving up value which have been sliding since December 2022. DFW is flat and at 1 to 2 mo. of inventory, the values have stabilized. Interest rates will play a role in slowing sales. Houston is holding stable. San Antonio's median inventory continues to drip. High-dollar homes transacted are trending with unit volumes also transcribing. Houston is above volume with Dallas now leading in sales. Percent of sales ebbing and flowing. Percentages, where people are buying and selling, are with smaller volumes in transacted and continuing the trend. DFW and Houston are inverted and equal. San Antonio has taken over the largest amount of sales with the most available buyers in the Texas MSAs.
Values shift in Texas.
San Antonio, Houston, and Texas are all flat. Austin has gone down and is forecasted to be flat. A shift in median values in Austin ensued.
Active listings in Texas have gone down since the great recession and returned to normal as the pandemic dropped. Post dot com bust and population has grown and the inventory of homes has grown. Volume was highest in Houston, Dallas, then San Antonio followed by Austin hovering 2010 level. Austin since the great recession flat and started to trend upwards. Percentage of inventory flat.
Post covid Austin just above 3 mo. inventory with the largest MSAs lower in inventory.
Where are values going for New Builds?
Big uptick of new builds. We have hit bottom and are recovering from Late May or Early June. 34% Post finance crises 2012 builder doing anything to sale. Builders are on trend upwards and builders selling more. New builds are going to start tightening up on incentives. 1st quarter values dropped and best deals happened. Getting warmer in 3rd quarter with continued incentives and subsidies of mortgage rates.
Resales
All new numbers going down until we see the forecast we are back into value dilution for the foreseeable short future. New PENDINGS waterfall. Need for close units to increase. Lack of closing units in Q3. Slow down in PENDINGS. Interest rates teasing mid 7% APR. The average list price has held steady surprisingly.
New builds Pricing stability in April. Peaked in July for Pending. Entering a period of diluting unless close price to the list price tightens.
Conclusion
BIG MOVEMENT IN MARKETPLACE RECENT. AVG resale price coming down $806K. Avg Pending $632K = 1$75K delta - Significant. Avg list price has had so much velocity with list price changes. * Below the curve. Continued dilution of value is possible. Long-term resale value and closed price to list price trend down from 101% to 97% and diluting. Havoc is in trend at play. Forecast to close 2023 at 2021 avg. values. Short-term 2021 calm then went crazy in 2022 and then fell apart.
Closed price to list price for all sales base out.
Higher days on the market for listings.
Buyers hold the cards. Sellers have to meet buyers where they are willing to pay in most areas of Austin.
It's a great day to buy or sell a house in the Austin and Greater Metro TX Hill Country. Contact Us for a Market Analysis of your property TODAY!
Interpretation by Cara A. Collier
REALTOR®, GRI, New Home Sales Agent Certified
Kenney Grant Realty, Austin est. 2020 Independent Broker
512-537-3803
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